Polymarket Structural-Arb Engine (paper mode)

$1,105.90equity (start $1,000) $+105.90realized P&L $571.40free cash (rest is in open bets) 20open legs 0executions (session) 50groups watched 794live books 33.0msfeed delay avg 136.61huptime

Current consistency gaps (edge per $1 bundle — positive = arbitrage)

edge	cost/pay	type	group
+0.8130	0.1850/1	ladder	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? ladder 2026-07-31->2026-08-31
+0.1480	1.8500/2	negrisk	Drogheda United FC vs. Shamrock Rovers buy-all-NO
+0.0190	1.9790/2	negrisk	Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje buy-all-NO
+0.0180	1.9800/2	negrisk	Birmingham City vs. FC Barcelona buy-all-NO
+0.0140	18.9840/19	negrisk	EPL: 2027 Champion buy-all-NO
+0.0140	1.9840/2	negrisk	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur buy-all-NO
+0.0100	1.9880/2	negrisk	Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC buy-all-NO
+0.0090	1.9890/2	negrisk	CA Bucaramanga vs. Llaneros FC buy-all-NO
+0.0090	1.9890/2	negrisk	MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda buy-all-NO
+0.0090	1.9890/2	negrisk	Newport County vs. AS Roma buy-all-NO
+0.0090	1.9890/2	negrisk	CD Tolima vs. Independiente Medellín buy-all-NO
+0.0080	1.9900/2	negrisk	Vålerenga Fotball vs. Hamarkameratene buy-all-NO
+0.0080	1.9900/2	negrisk	Real Madrid vs. ACF Fiorentina buy-all-NO
+0.0080	1.9900/2	negrisk	Galatasaray Istanbul vs. Stade Rennais FC buy-all-NO
+0.0080	1.9900/2	negrisk	Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Cruzeiro EC buy-all-NO

Execution & risk analytics

81%win rate $+1.70avg win $-6.22avg loss 48.3%capital deployed 54%arb fill rate (T+150ms) 51arb aborts +0.0116avg slippage/sh 1.79daily Sharpe

Risk tracker — the numbers the gate decision rests on

$-136.68 (-13.7%)max drawdown (peak→trough) $-121.89worst day $+79.82best day 63 legs / $-167.69worst same-day loss cluster 31days of data

Favorites' whole risk is a rare fat-loss cluster. GO needs: still net-positive through a stress day + max drawdown survivable at 10x live size. Watch worst-cluster and max-drawdown, not the win rate.

category	realized P&L
other	$-98.72
politics/macro	$+15.88
crypto	$+66.95
sports	$+121.79

Edge decay curve — is colocation worth buying?

time after detection	samples	% still profitable	avg remaining edge
+0ms	500	100%	+0.0229
+50ms	496	80%	+0.0097
+100ms	496	79%	+0.0087
+150ms	496	78%	+0.0080
+250ms	496	77%	+0.0068
+500ms	496	74%	+0.0052
+1000ms	495	71%	+0.0042

Opportunity histogram (peak edge of every window observed)

<0.5%	0.5-1%	1-2%	2-3%	3-5%	>5%
11	83	36	16	18	36

Capital efficiency & shadow execution

-390%arb: annualized/$ deployed+47566%fade: annualized/$ deployed+516%favorite: annualized/$ deployed+793%finprint: annualized/$ deployed 122shadow-tracked legs -0.0185markout +1s-0.0139markout +5s-0.0085markout +30s

Markout = best bid minus our buy price after 1/5/30s. Persistently negative = trading against better-informed flow.

Odds anchor — favorites vs sharp prices (DraftKings via ESPN + Kalshi second opinion)

21cheap 6fair 301info 72rich

seen	source	verdict	PM ask	fair	edge	market
08-05 16:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.98	0.96	-0.02	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 6?
08-05 16:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.97	0.94	-0.03	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 7?
08-05 14:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.98	0.96	-0.03	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 7?
08-05 14:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.96	1.00	+0.04	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 5?
08-05 12:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.98	0.95	-0.02	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 7?
08-05 12:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.97	0.95	-0.02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 6?
08-05 12:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.91	0.88	-0.03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 9?
08-05 12:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.94	0.93	-0.01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6?
08-05 10:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.98	0.95	-0.02	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 7?
08-05 10:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.97	0.95	-0.02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 6?
08-05 10:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.96	0.95	-0.01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6?
08-05 08:40	Kalshi	INFO	0.96	0.95	-0.02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 6?

RICH = Polymarket price above fair value → bet skipped. CHEAP = priced below fair value → positive-EV buy. Last 400 comparisons shown in counts.

Market-maker probe ("standing there" strategy — separate $500 book)

$500.00equity (start $500) $+0.00paper P&L 0fills 0pairs redeemed 12markets quoted —avg 60s markout (toxicity)

updated 2026-07-14 03:09:26 UTC

Race telemetry — can we execute fast enough?

200arb windows recorded 7.53smedian window lifetime ~133msour est. reaction (feed+order) 100%windows we'd have caught 4open right now

time (UTC)	peak edge	lived	opportunity
2026-08-05 17:42	+0.0080	1.14s	Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK
2026-08-05 17:41	+0.0880	40.02s	SSC Napoli vs. CA Osasuna
2026-08-05 17:32	+0.0080	9.99s	Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK
2026-08-05 17:21	+0.0580	0.20s	SK Brann vs. Apóllon Lemesoú
2026-08-05 17:10	+0.0040	1463.69s	Largest Company end of August?
2026-08-05 17:03	+0.0080	2.00s	Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK
2026-08-05 17:01	+0.0880	92.03s	SSC Napoli vs. CA Osasuna
2026-08-05 16:53	+0.0070	23.99s	Lazio Rome vs. AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
2026-08-05 16:38	+0.0080	6.02s	Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK
2026-08-05 16:32	+0.0080	0.49s	Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK

Open positions (all strategies on this box)

strategy	stake	bet	ends	market
fade	$30.14	'GIANTX' @ 0.510	2026-07-25	Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5)
favorite	$29.78	'No' @ 0.930	2026-07-31	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
finprint	$10.00	'No' @ 0.320	2026-08-03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
favorite	$26.78	'Yes' @ 0.970	2026-08-04	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary
favorite	$26.08	'No' @ 0.920	2026-08-05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5,
favorite	$24.35	'Yes' @ 0.960	2026-08-05	Will Lazio Rome win on 2026-08-05?
favorite	$25.21	'No' @ 0.900	2026-08-05	Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-08-05?
favorite	$27.21	'No' @ 0.930	2026-08-05	Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-08-05?
favorite	$23.16	'No' @ 0.963	2026-08-06	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 5?
favorite	$27.21	'Kuaishou Gaming' @ 0.976	2026-08-06	Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO7) - Honor
favorite	$24.13	'No' @ 0.940	2026-08-06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6?
favorite	$27.21	'Team Heretics Academy' @ 0.979	2026-08-06	Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs UB Alma Mater (+1.5)
favorite	$26.08	'No' @ 0.900	2026-08-06	Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?
favorite	$27.25	'No' @ 0.941	2026-08-07	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7,
favorite	$24.69	'Yes' @ 0.910	2026-08-07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 7?
favorite	$27.21	'No' @ 0.968	2026-08-07	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 7?
favorite	$30.89	'No' @ 0.909	2026-08-07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?
fade	$31.85	'Yes' @ 0.699	2026-08-11	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee fo
fade	$34.06	'Yes' @ 0.022	2026-08-18	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Go
fade	$31.21	'Yes' @ 0.246	2026-10-04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential el

Settled results

time (UTC)	result	P&L $	market
2026-08-05 16:40	WON	+2.89	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 5?
2026-08-05 16:40	WON	+0.54	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on
2026-08-05 16:40	WON	+1.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5?
2026-08-05 15:09	WON	+3.41	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by Jul
2026-08-05 14:40	LOST	-29.65	Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)
2026-08-05 12:40	WON	+2.20	Exact Score: CF Villarreal C 0 - 0 Levante UD?
2026-08-05 07:09	LOST	-29.64	Will Atlante FC win on 2026-08-04?
2026-08-05 06:40	WON	+1.96	Exact Score: Clube do Remo 0 - 2 Santos FC?
2026-08-05 06:40	WON	+1.56	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican pr
2026-08-05 04:40	WON	+2.93	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on August 4?
2026-08-04 23:08	WON	+3.29	Exact Score: Shamrock Rovers FC 2 - 1 KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë?
2026-08-04 22:40	WON	+1.34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?

Paper-executed bundles

time (UTC)	bundle	shares	cost	min payout	edge/sh
2026-07-15 13:54	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.70	$10.00	+0.1280
2026-07-14 23:20	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.70	$10.00	+0.1280
2026-07-14 22:50	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.70	$10.00	+0.1280
2026-07-14 18:49	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.90	$10.00	+0.1080
2026-07-14 05:02	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.70	$10.00	+0.1280
2026-07-13 23:00	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.80	$10.00	+0.1180
2026-07-13 17:28	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.40	$10.00	+0.1580
2026-07-13 10:56	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.50	$10.00	+0.1480
2026-07-13 07:24	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.30	$10.00	+0.1680
2026-07-13 06:54	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.30	$10.00	+0.1680
2026-07-13 06:24	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.40	$10.00	+0.1580
2026-07-13 05:53	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.40	$10.00	+0.1580
2026-07-13 05:23	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.40	$10.00	+0.1580
2026-07-13 04:53	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.30	$10.00	+0.1680
2026-07-12 22:51	Israel closes its airspace by July 15? [ladder 2026-07-15->2026-07-31]	10	$8.50	$10.00	+0.1480

updated 2026-08-05 17:42:47 UTC — refreshes every 2 min