Polymarket Structural-Arb Engine (paper mode)

$1,000.00equity (start $1,000) $+0.00realized P&L $421.90free cash (rest is in open bets) 15open legs 0executions (session) 42groups watched 800live books 87.2msfeed delay avg 1.03huptime

Current consistency gaps (edge per $1 bundle — positive = arbitrage)

edge	cost/pay	type	group
-0.0020	2.0000/2	negrisk	Argentina vs. Egypt buy-all-NO
-0.0020	4.0000/4	negrisk	Fed Decision in September? buy-all-NO
-0.0040	12.0020/12	negrisk	How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? buy-all-NO
-0.0110	4.0090/4	negrisk	Fed Decision in July? buy-all-NO
-0.0120	2.0100/2	negrisk	Portugal vs. Spain - Halftime Result buy-all-NO
-0.0120	2.0100/2	negrisk	Switzerland vs. Colombia buy-all-NO
-0.0120	2.0100/2	negrisk	United States vs. Belgium buy-all-NO
-0.0120	2.0100/2	negrisk	France vs. Morocco buy-all-NO
-0.0120	2.0100/2	negrisk	Portugal vs. Spain buy-all-NO
-0.0130	9.0110/9	negrisk	2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner buy-all-NO
-0.0170	1.0150/1	ladder	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? ladder 2026-07-07->2026-07-15
-0.0190	3.0170/3	negrisk	World Cup: Norway Stage of Elimination buy-all-NO
-0.0210	7.0190/7	negrisk	Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? buy-all-NO
-0.0220	3.0200/3	negrisk	Which continent will win the World Cup? buy-all-NO
-0.0220	13.0200/13	negrisk	Highest grossing movie in 2026? buy-all-NO

Race telemetry — can we execute fast enough?

0arb windows recorded —median window lifetime ~187msour est. reaction (feed+order) —windows we'd have caught 0open right now

time (UTC)	peak edge	lived	opportunity
no arb windows observed yet

Paper-executed bundles

time (UTC)	bundle	shares	cost	min payout	edge/sh
none yet

updated 2026-07-06 13:01:08 UTC — refreshes every 2 min